655 
abpw10 pgtw 280600
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/280600z-290600zaug2008//
ref/a/msg/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/280151zaug2008//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
Rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 280000z, tropical depression 14w (fourteen) was located
near 20.0n 121.9e, approximately 330 nm north of Manila Philippines,
and had tracked northwestward at 08 knots over the past six hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 25 knots gusting
to 35 knots. See ref a (wtpn31 pgtw 280300) for the final warning on
this system.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 19.9n
152.0e, is now located near 18.8n 151.6e, approximately 525 nm
northeast of Guam. Recent animated multispectral imagery shows a
developing mid-level circulation center coupled with broad and weak
cyclonic turning at the surface. However, associated convection has
become increasingly sparse as a tropical upper tropospheric trough
(tutt) cell transits westward to the north of the system. As the
TUTT bears increasingly more northwestward from the system over the
next 12-24 hours, upper level conditions will become more favorable
for sustaining deep convection. Additionally, c-130 recon data and a
271948z Quikscat pass show maximum surface winds of 15 kts and
indications of a weak and poorly defined surface circulation
embedded within large-scale troughing. Vertical wind shear remains
low to moderate. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10
to 15 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1006
mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical
cyclone within the next 24 hours remains poor.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
Forecast team: Bravo//

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