Palm Harbor Tropical Forecast Center

Last Updated: 1:23 PM GMT on July 11, 2009 — Last Comment: 12:07 AM GMT on July 12, 2009

	TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JULY 10, 2009 ISSUED 3:15 P.M. EDT

Posted by: StormW, 7:13 PM GMT on July 10, 2009

Good afternoon!

Well, another day we don't have to worry about any landfalling tropical systems...that's always a good thing, unless you can use a tropical storm offhsore to relieve any drought.

Cloudiness and showers still remain off the FL/GA coast today in association with a frontal trough of lower pressure. Satellite loop imagery on various channels, as well as Doppler Radar out of Jacksonville Florida indicate a broad circulation just off the coast, confined to the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. RGB and visible satellite loop imagery, as well as Quikscat and station reports out of FL/GA indicate no surface circulation at the moment. Buoy Station 41012 - St. Augustine, FL 40NM ENE of St Augustine, FL. Reported a surface pressure in the last hour of 30.14 inches and steady.

Based on analysis of current steering and forecast steering layers maps, I expect this to eventually begin to move off to the ENE and only affect shipping. While this is over the Gulfstream, a slim possibility may exist that this feature tries to go subtropical. However, forecast wind shear indicates only a small, somewhat favorable area of upper level winds in the track for only the next 24 hours, before wind shear increases to a high unfavorable level from the NNE. I will continue to monitor this feature over the next few days in case any significant changes take place.

ATLANTIC IR LOOP

Elsewhere, the only item of interest for me is the wave that is getting ready to exit the African continent. This wave seems to be the best we've seen thus far in the way of structure, though there is very limited convective activity. Once this enters the Atlantic Ocean, I believe it won't be SST's that will be an inhibiting factor, however it is going to have to conetnd with dry air to its north, although the atmosphere is a little more moist than it's been...directly ahead of it. The only other factor is, the previous dust bust and subsidence from the A/B high has created a very stable environment ahead of it. I mean, the clouds over the ETAL and CATL north of the ITCZ are picture perfect Sc (Stratocumulus). These are indicative of a stable environment. Only one model at the moment, the GFS holds this wave on and off, and holds on to it beginning in the CATL, then dissipates it before the Lesser Antilles.

NEMOC MET-9 IR

I wil continue to monitor this wave as it moves west, as I said, the only limiting factor at the moment is dry air. The current run of the forecast wind shear maps shows a somewhat conducive upper level environment for at least the next 72-96 hours. In fact, from the CATL, eastward, is about the only somewhat conducive upper environment.

The wind shear forecast does call for upper level winds to relax over the GOMEX beginning next week, then becoming less conducive at day 6 from the 12Z run of the forecast period. One should bear in mind as well, though the wind shear is forecast to relax over the GOMEX, there will be a lack of any optimal outflow, as the pattern calls for winds to be mostly dominate out of the NNE-NE.

None of the models shows any development for at least the next 5 days. This mornings run of the ECMWF indicates the model has dropped the system it was developing in the northern GOMEX in a few days.

However, just for something to watch, there is a possibility that a MCS from over the central U.S. could drop down into the GOMEX over the next 2-3 days. Though models do not show anything, this is the way Tropical Storm Allison began in 2001, after a MCS slid into the GOMEX from Texas.

Water Vapor imagery still pretty much tells the story for lack of activity.

WATER VAPOR LOOP

SAL

Based on the current MJO status, upward motion over the Atlantic Basin is waning.

MJO

And, based on the MJO forecast, the next couple of weeks should stay pretty quiet as we go into a downward motion phase of the MJO.

GFS FORECAST

CFS FORECAST

I really don't look for it to pick up until the end of this month, if then. Looks as if the best shot of seeing activity beginning to pick up is the first 2 weeks of Aug. Based on what I am looking at from analysis, I'm not counting on a real big August either...at least in the CATL and EATL. I would imagine once the subsidence leaves from the downward MJO pulse from near mid to end August, we should see our peak to begin.

Based on the CFS model forecast of the MSLP mean for September, we could see the SAL cutdown, and SST's in the Atlantic warm somewhat.

The SOI remains at +0.6. This condition is aiding to slow more warming in the Equatorial Pacific.

ENSO WRAP UP

The TUTT axis was located near the Bahamas, southward to over eastern Cuba, the south to east of Jamaica and into Colombia.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through Saturday.

If ANYONE has any questions you would like answered, even over the weekend, please email me here. Do not feel as if you are bothering me....not at all. I will get back to you as soon as I'm able, as I just check on and off on the weekend.

"Storm"

T. F. "STORM" WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST/TROPICAL FORECASTER
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS (webmaster)
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)

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Updated: 7:18 PM GMT on July 10, 2009

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	TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JULY 09, 2009 ISSUED 10:45 A.M. EDT

Posted by: StormW, 2:43 PM GMT on July 09, 2009

Good morning all!WOW! Talk about quiet. Think I'll go on vacation for the next month!! (j/k).There is absolutely nothing that catches my eye this morning in analysis.An area of convection and showers is still situated just off the SEUS coast. This is associated with a stalled frontal boundry. The same 3 computer models CMC, GFS, and NOGAPS still indicate a couple of lows initiating from this area. The CMC and GFS are a little bullish on the second low, which the...

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Updated: 3:37 PM GMT on July 09, 2009

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	TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JULY 08, 2009 ISSUED 6:15 P.M. EDT

Posted by: StormW, 10:12 PM GMT on July 08, 2009

Good evening all!Not too much change in the picture of the tropics from yesterday.An area of convection and showers is still situated just off the SEUS coast. Much of this is associated with a stalled frontal boundry.Based on the current computer model runs, the CMC, GFS, and NOGAPS are indicating another developing low well off the SEUS coast. Aagain, given the current and forecast wind shear pattern, I do not expect significant development of this, though the CMC...

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	TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JULY 07, 2009 ISSUED 1:30 P.M. EDT

Posted by: StormW, 5:27 PM GMT on July 07, 2009

Good afternoon all!Well, there is a little more color on the satellite imagery today.An area of convection and showers is situated just off the SEUS coast, east of Georgia, with an area of low pressure of 1006 mb as depicted by satellite overlay. For those interested in converting that to inches of mercury, multiply the 1006 mb (put a decimal between the 1 and 006...1.006) by 29.53.Based on the current computer model runs, the CMC, GFS, and NOGAPS indicate a develo...

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Updated: 5:49 PM GMT on July 07, 2009

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	TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JULY 06, 2009 ISSUED 12:50 P.M. EDT

Posted by: StormW, 4:49 PM GMT on July 06, 2009

Good day to all!I hope everyone had a great 4th of July weekend!!Aye!...the Atlantic...she sleeps.I really see no items of interest...not even that thing NHC was calling 94L. Most of you know or may not know my take on these type of areas. It just seems that the NHC takes more interest in naked swirls sometimes. I have my thoughts on sub-tropical systems...I think they should knock off naming them...to some extent. Here's food for thought...other than the 1995, ...

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Updated: 6:47 PM GMT on July 06, 2009

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