For southeast sector of Metarea VII, prepared by reunion, see area 2 below.

Note: wx observations. ====================== Could all vessels experiencing unexpected, severe wx/sea state please make every effort to report this to saws via cape town radio.

Area 1: ======= forecast valid from 122200 to 132200 UTC.

Wind in knots, wave heights in metres. No sea state given if waves less than 3m.

Note the wind speeds quoted here are the expected average speeds. Individual gusts may exceed these values by a factor of up to 1.5. Wave heights are significant wave heights which may be accompanied by individual waves 1.5 to 2.0 times higher.

Gale warning(s): ================ 1. Cape east : N to NW 35 in some places in the east. 2. Marion forties east: NW to SW 25 to 35 in the south, and reaching 40 at times.

Synoptic situation at 1200 utc: ============================== high 1034 hpa 32s04w high 1034 hpa 34s62e low 990 hpa 44s25e low 970 hpa 53s26e low 982 hpa 54s44e low 982 hpa 62s38e

1. Cold front: 37s07e 40s23e 44s25e 2. Cold front: 30s03e 35s20e 40s29e 45s34e 50s42e 54s44e 53s26e

Area forecast: ==============

Cape east (32.5s/40s, 20e/50e) wind : west of 35e: W to SW 15 to 25 becoming S to se 15 to 25 and reaching 30 in some places. East of 35e: N to NW 20 to 30, reaching 35 in some places in the east. It will become se 30 in the extreme South-West end of period. Vis : moderate to poor in frontal rain and showers in the west, and in showers in the east. Sea state: 4.0 to 5.0m in the west, spreading slowly to the central parts, and 3.0 to 3.5m in the extreme south-east. N to NW swell in the central parts in the north spreading slowly south-eastwards, otherwise W to SW swell.

Durban east (25s/32.5s, East Coast/55e) wind : west of 40e: NW to SW 15 to 20 becoming NE to NW 15 to 20. It will become SW 20 in the extreme South-West end of period. East of 40e: NE to N 15 to 25 becoming N to NW 10 to 15 in the west. Vis : moderate to poor in showers in the east. Sea state: reaching 3.0m in the east, SSW swell.

Mozambique channel: wind : north of 15s: se 05 to 10 but 20 to 25 in the extreme North-East. South of 15s: anticyclonic (anti-clockwise) 05 to 10 becoming NE to N 15 to 25 in the South-West. Vis : moderate in a few light showers in the extreme North. Sea state: reaching 3.0m in the extreme North-East, SW swell but E swell in the extreme north.

Madagascar east: wind : se to NE 15 to 25. Vis : moderate to poor in showers in the north and west. Sea state: 3.0 to 3.5m in the northern and central parts and the extreme south-east, SSW swell but locally se to E swell in the central parts near the coast.

Marion forties east: (40s/50s, 35e/50e) wind : NW to SW 15 to 25 becoming 25 to 35 in the south, reaching 40 at times. Vis : poor in frontal rain, snow showers later. Sea state: 3.0 to 4.0m, becoming 4.5 to 6.5m in the South-West, SW to NW swell.

Area 2: ======= marine meteorological bulletin from Meteo-France/La Reunion on area ack (amsterdam-Crozet-kerguelen)

Date : 09/07/12 UTC time : 1800

Averaged wind speed on Beaufort scale wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here.

Part 1: warning : nil, but gale force 8 over cro.

Part 2: general synopsis, 09/07/12 at 1200 UTC : - high 1033 hpa near 36s/56e, moving eastward 10 kt. - Cold front cf axis 36s/34e, 40s/38e, 43s/43e, 45s/48e, 47s/50e, 49s/49e, 52s/52e, 53s/50e moving east-south-eastward 30 kt, then warm front wf axis 53s/50e, 52s/54e, 50s/57e, 47s/61e, with low 984 hpa near 51s/46e. - Cold front axis 40s/30e, 42s/33e, 44s/34e, 47s/36e moving east-south-eastward 30kt.

Part 3: forecast for 24 hours from 09/07/12 at 1800 UTC to 09/07/13 at 1800 UTC :

wam (30s/40s,50e/65e) : frontal rain and showers over western area. Wind : anticlockwise 4/5 and westerly 6 over southeastern area, and N-W 6 to 7 over southwestern area ahead cf. Sea : rough to very rough becoming moderate over northwestern area. Moderate to heavy southwesterly swell weakening. Vis : poor in rain and showers.

Ams (30s/40s,65e/80e) : squalls and showers. Wind : southwesterly 5/7 over southern area and southerly 5/7 over northern area , becoming anticlockwise 3/5 over northwestern area at end. Sea : very rough, locally high, becoming rough to very rough. Moderate to heavy southwesterly swell. Vis : poor in squalls and showers.

Cro (40s/50s,50e/65e) : rain or snow and showers in cf and wf. Wind : westerly 6/8 over eastern area, veering N-W 6/8 ahead cf becoming northwesterly 5/7 behind. Sea : rough to very rough. Moderate southwesterly swell, then moderate westerly swell. Vis : poor in rain or snow and showers.

Ker (40s/50s,65e/80e) : squalls, rain or snow and showers in cf and wf. Wind : southwesterly 5/7, becoming north to northwest 5/6 locally 7 ahead wf, then backing westerly 5/7 behind. Sea : rough to very rough. Moderate to heavy westerly swell. Vis : poor in rain or snow, squalls and showers.